SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock has already shown the kind of sharp, attention‑grabbing moves that tend to define newly listed mega‑cap growth shares.

Since its initial public offering (IPO) debut on 12 June, its price has hit a high of $225.64 (£165.60) and a low of $104.83. Currently, it is trading around the $141 level.

The question for potential investors now is whether this volatility reflects simple post‑IPO price discovery or something more meaningful about the company’s long‑term prospects?

What’s the profit outlook and risks here?

Every company’s share price is ultimately determined by profit growth, and SpaceX will be no different. Nor will the fact that its earnings growth will face risks — and, given the extraordinary nature of its business, big ones.

The firm’s long‑term economics depend heavily on Starship becoming a fully reusable, high‑frequency launch system. But a major failure could delay NASA’s Artemis schedule (its multi‑year programme to return humans to the Moon). This could force SpaceX to absorb significant additional development costs.

Another is increased regulatory scrutiny, given that SpaceX operates in highly sensitive businesses. These include satellite spectrum allocation, orbital debris management, and defence contracting. Any tightening of regulations on satellite deployment, for example or defence‑related exports could slow growth.

However, analysts’ consensus is that SpaceX’s earnings will grow by a yearly average of 57% to end-2028 at least.

What are the key growth drivers?

Analysts highlight three major engines that will drive the firm’s projected future earnings growth. First, the continued global expansion of Starlink — SpaceX’s global satellite‑internet business. This remains the firm’s most mature and profitable business, with subscriber numbers still rising across new markets.

Second, the rapid build‑out of its AI division, which is scaling its computing infrastructure and attracting major cloud‑compute customers.

And third, the commercialisation of Starship — the firm’s fully reusable spacecraft designed to carry payloads and people to the Moon and Mars. If this reaches reliable high‑frequency operations, it could transform launch economics and open entirely new revenue streams.

In this context, 20 August saw US President Donald Trump sign a memo to enable at least 1,000 launches and re-entries annually by 2030. That compares to 178 launches last year — a figure that is already 10 times higher than in 2013 and dominated by SpaceX.

In May, the head of the Federal Aviation Administration said SpaceX aimed to reach 10,000 annual launches within five years.

By end-2028, analysts forecast that SpaceX’s return on equity — a key profitability measure — will be 29.3%.

My investment view

The 18 major analysts who initiated coverage of SpaceX at the time of the June IPO have a mean average 12-month share price target of $220.74. This represents a 55.6% potential increase from the last closing price of $141.87.

Whether the shares can meet those expectations will depend on SpaceX executing its plans without major setbacks. The company’s ambitions are vast, and progress is unlikely to be smooth. But the earnings outlook remains unusually strong for a newly listed mega-cap.

For now, SpaceX is not for me, as I am at a later stage of my own investment cycle and am reducing portfolio risk.

For others without this hindrance, I think the stock offers significant potential to consider but equally significant uncertainty.

Should you invest £5,000 in SpaceX right now?
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Simon Watkins does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.